In 2026, the whole country is expected to export approximately 7.73 million tons of commercial rice.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, the area planted with rice in 2026 is estimated at 7.09 million hectares, a decrease of 36.1 thousand hectares compared to 2025.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, the rice cultivation area in 2026 is estimated at 7.09 million hectares, a decrease of 36.1 thousand hectares compared to 2025; the average yield is estimated at 61.4 quintals/hectare, an increase of 0.3 quintals/hectare; and the rice production is estimated at 43.552 million tons, an increase of approximately 12 thousand tons compared to the same period last year.

Specifically, the 2025-2026 Winter-Spring crop is expected to have 2.96 million hectares planted, with a production of 20.335 million tons; the 2026 Summer-Autumn crop will have approximately 1.89 million hectares planted, with a production of nearly 11 million tons; the 2026 Autumn-Winter crop will have 0.72 million hectares planted, with a production of approximately 4.176 million tons; and the 2026 main crop will have 1.52 million hectares planted, with an estimated production of 8.117 million tons.

Regarding the balance of supply and demand for rice for export, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment stated that the main source of rice for export is concentrated in the Mekong Delta region. The estimated annual rice production in this region (including part of Tay Ninh province before the merger) is approximately 24.34 million tons. After deducting domestic consumption, seed production, and use for livestock feed, the remaining amount of marketable rice is approximately 15.46 million tons, equivalent to 7.73 million tons of rice available for export.

The structure of exported rice includes approximately 75% high-quality and fragrant rice; 10% glutinous rice; and about 15% rice for processing. It is projected that rice exports will reach approximately 4.014 million tons in the first six months of 2026 and 3.716 million tons in the last six months, focusing on months with high harvest yields such as January, March, April, July, August, and September.

To effectively manage rice exports, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment proposes boosting exports during periods of abundant supply, while maintaining the minimum required circulating reserve; implementing inventory reporting; and gradually building digital tools for monitoring and early warning of rice supply and demand risks, ready to meet domestic market stabilization needs when necessary.

In addition, the Ministry proposes strengthening trade promotion, diversifying markets and product segments; and accelerating digital transformation in developing scenarios for managing rice import and export. Regarding the organization of rice procurement, the Ministry recommends that the Ministry of Industry and Trade coordinate with localities to standardize procurement activities, enhance transparency of price information, inspect and monitor the market, strictly handle fraudulent acts, speculation, and price manipulation, and ensure a balance of interests between producers and businesses.

In addition, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment has also contributed to several policies for managing the rice market in the coming period, including amending Decree No. 107/2018/ND-CP on rice export business and building a mechanism for managing rice imports to protect domestic production and ensure the sustainable development of the rice value chain.

Source: https://nhandan.vn/